Dr Lindsay Lee
Leverhulme Research Fellow
+44(0) 113 34
Email address: L.A.Lee@leeds.ac.uk
Affiliation: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science
I am a statistician and my research interests are using advanced statistical methods to better understand Earth science models and the visualisation of statistical results for scientific interpretation.
I joined the department in January 2010 to work on the NERC funded AEROS project and I now work on the NERC funded GASSP project. For AEROS I carried out a sensitivity analysis of the global aerosol model GLOMAP (developed here at Leeds) in order to assess the effects of uncertainty in the model parameters on model predictions. In order to carry out the sensitivity analysis I conducted an expert elicitation, designed a set of model runs for emulation, and built and validated Gaussian Process emulators for univariate model outputs. The main challenge for me as a statistician was using these methods to provide information about a global model and producing visualisations and results that could be interpreted by the modellers. AEROS provided the modellers with unprecedented information about GLOMAP and its uncertainties as well as helping us to understand the limitations of our current predictions of atmospheric aerosol and its effect on the climate. The work I did for AEROS has been well received by the scientific community and I now advise on similar projects using different models. The vast data set we have as a result of the AEROS project has also been used by MSc and PhD students to assess other model uncertainties and their effects.
In GASSP I use the sensitivity results from AEROS to help constrain the model parameters and produce a calibrated version of GLOMAP understanding the limitations of the calibration and the irreducible uncertainties. The sensitivity results are used to reduce the globe to fewer regions in which similar parameters are acting for further analysis. History matching with perfect ‘observations’ is used to quantify the value of observations taken from different regions in reducing model uncertainty so that new observations can be suggested and the vast database of current observations used most efficiently. The use of perfect ‘observations’ means we can assess the usefulness of potential observations depending on their own uncertainties. Using the newly defined global regions we can test the validity of the constrained parameter sets within regions and between regions perhaps introducing new parameters where constraints don’t match.
2010: PhD in Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield
2006: MSc in Statistics, University of Sheffield
2005: BSc in Mathematics, University of Sheffield
My research interests are in quantifying and understanding the effect of uncertainty in complex global models. I have so far worked with a global vegetation model and a global aerosol model but I also advise on similar use of the techniques in other Earth system component models. I apply well-established statistical methods to models whose uncertainty is not yet well-understood. I first look at parametric uncertainty which I believe is the first step to really understand model uncertainty. I am currently researching how understanding parametric uncertainty can help to identify structural uncertainties and understand model diversities with the aim of producing models in whose predictions we can be more confident and whose limitations are better understood.
I have given many talks to both the scientific and statistical community both regarding my research and the more general topic of using statistics to assess environmental model uncertainty as well as public lectures in the use of statistics in environmental modelling.
- Reddington C; Carslaw KS; Stier P; Schutgens N; Coe H; Liu D; Allan J; Browse J; Pringle K; Lee LA; Yoshioka M; Johnson JS; Regayre LA; Spracklen DV; Mann GW; Clarke A; Hermann M; Henning S; Wex H; Kristensen TB; Leaitch WR; Poeschl U; Rose D; Andreae MO; Schmale J; Kondo Y; Oshima N; Schwarz JP; Nenes A; Anderson B; Roberts GC; Snider JR; Leck C; Quinn PK; Chi X; Ding A; Jimenez JL; Zhang Q (2017) THE GLOBAL AEROSOL SYNTHESIS AND SCIENCE PROJECT (GASSP) Measurements and modelling to reduce uncertainty, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, . doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00317.1
- Yang H; Dobbie S; Ramirez-Villegas J; Feng K; Challinor AJ; Chen B; Gao Y; Lee L; Yin Y; Sun L; Watson J; Koehler AK; Fan T; Ghosh S (2016) Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, pp.11-795. doi: 10.1002/2016GL071209
- Lee LA; Reddington CL; Carslaw KS (2016) On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, pp.5820-5827. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1507050113
- Johnson JS; Cui Z; Lee LA; Gosling JP; Blyth AM; Carslaw KS (2015) Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, pp.162-187. doi: 10.1002/2014MS000383
- Pope RJ; Chipperfield MP; Savage NH; Ordóñez C; Neal LS; Lee LA; Dhomse SS; Richards NAD; Keslake TD (2015) Evaluation of a regional air quality model using satellite column NO<inf>2</inf>: Treatment of observation errors and model boundary conditions and emissions, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, pp.5611-5626. doi: 10.5194/acp-15-5611-2015
- Regayre LA; Pringle KJ; Lee LA; Rap A; Browse J; Mann GW; Reddington CL; Carslaw KS; Booth BBB; Woodhouse MT (2015) The climatic importance of uncertainties in regional aerosol-cloud radiative forcings over recent decades, Journal of Climate, 28, pp.6589-6607. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0127.1
- Hamilton DS; Lee LA; Pringle KJ; Reddington CL; Spracklen DV; Carslaw KS (2014) Occurrence of pristine aerosol environments on a polluted planet, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, pp.18466-18471. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1415440111
- Regayre LA; Pringle KJ; Booth BBB; Lee LA; Mann GW; Browse J; Woodhouse MT; Rap A; Reddington CL; Carslaw KS (2014) Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over recent decades, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, pp.9040-9049. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062029
- Mann GW; Carslaw KS; Reddington CL; Pringle KJ; Schulz M; Asmi A; Spracklen DV; Ridley DA; Woodhouse MT; Lee LA; Zhang K; Ghan SJ; Easter RC; Liu X; Stier P; Lee YH; Adams PJ; Tost H; Lelieveld J; Bauer SE; Tsigaridis K; Van Noije TPC; Strunk A; Vignati E; Bellouin N; Dalvi M; Johnson CE; Bergman T; Kokkola H; Von Salzen K; Yu F; Luo G; Petzold A; Heintzenberg J; Clarke A; Ogren JA; Gras J; Baltensperger U; Kaminski U; Jennings SG; O'Dowd CD; Harrison RM; Beddows DCS; Kulmala M; Viisanen Y; Ulevicius V; Mihalopoulos N; Zdimal V; Fiebig M; Hansson HC; Swietlicki E; Henzing JS (2014) Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, pp.4679-4713. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014
- Carslaw KS; Lee LA; Reddington CL; Pringle KJ; Rap A; Forster PM; Mann GW; Spracklen DV; Woodhouse MT; Regayre LA; Pierce JR (2013) Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing, Nature, 503, pp.67-71.
- Carslaw KS; Lee LA; Reddington CL; Mann GW; Pringle KJ (2013) The magnitude and sources of uncertainty in global aerosol, Faraday Discussions, 165, pp.495-512. doi: 10.1039/c3fd00043e
- Lee LA; Pringle KJ; Reddington CL; Mann GW; Stier P; Spracklen DV; Pierce JR; Carslaw KS (2013) Erratum: The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (8879-8914) 13 (2013)), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, . doi: 10.5194/acp-13-9375-2013
- Lee LA; Pringle KJ; Reddington CL; Mann GW; Stier P; Spracklen DV; Pierce JR; Carslaw KS (2013) The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, pp.8879-8914. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013
- Carslaw KS; Lee LA; Pringle KJ; Mann GW; Spracklen DV; Stier P; Pierce JR (2013) New approaches to quantifying the magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global aerosol models, AIP Conference Proceedings, 1527, pp.641-646. doi: 10.1063/1.4803353
- Laakso L; Merikanto J; Vakkari V; Laakso H; Kulmala M; Molefe M; Kgabi N; Mabaso D; Carslaw KS; Spracklen DV; Lee LA; Reddington CL; Kerminen V-M (2013) Boundary layer nucleation as a source of new CCN in savannah environment, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 13, pp.1957-1972. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-1957-2013
- Lee LA; Carslaw KS; Pringle KJ; Mann GW (2012) Mapping the uncertainty in global CCN using emulation, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, pp.9739-9751. doi: 10.5194/acp-12-9739-2012
- Mann GW; Carslaw KS; Ridley DA; Spracklen DV; Pringle KJ; Merikanto J; Korhonen H; Schwarz JP; Lee LA; Manktelow PT; Woodhouse MT; Schmidt A; Breider TJ; Emmerson KM; Reddington CL; Chipperfield MP; Pickering SJ (2012) Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol microphysics representations within the same 3-D global chemical transport model, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, pp.4449-4476. doi: 10.5194/acp-12-4449-2012
- Dunne EM; Lee LA; Reddington CL; Carslaw KS (2012) No statistically significant effect of a short-term decrease in the nucleation rate on atmospheric aerosols, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 12, pp.11573-11587. doi: 10.5194/acp-12-11573-2012
- Lee LA; Carslaw KS; Pringle KJ; Mann GW; Spracklen DV (2011) Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 11, pp.12253-12273. doi: 10.5194/acp-11-12253-2011
- Reddington CL; Carslaw KS; Spracklen DV; Frontoso MG; Collins L; Merikanto J; Minikin A; Hamburger T; Coe H; Kulmala M; Aalto P; Flentje H; Plass-Duelmer C; Birmili W; Wiedensohler A; Wehner B; Tuch T; Sonntag A; O'Dowd CD; Jennings SG; Dupuy R; Baltensperger U; Weingartner E; Hansson H-C; Tunved P; Laj P; Sellegri K; Boulon J; Putaud J-P; Gruening C; Swietlicki E; Roldin P; Henzing JS; Moerman M; Mihalopoulos N; Kouvarakis G; Zdimal V; Zikova N; Marinoni A; Bonasoni P; Duchi R (2011) Primary versus secondary contributions to particle number concentrations in the European boundary layer, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 11, pp.12007-12036. doi: 10.5194/acp-11-12007-2011