Sustainability Research (SRI) PhD Projects

Exploring the trade-offs of different methodologies in decarbonisation scenarios

Supervisor: Dr Dabo Guan

In order to achieve the political commitments of the EU and several EU member states’ governments of at least 80 per cent greenhouse gas emission reductions over 1990 levels by 2050 the ways in which energy is produced and consumed will have to change fundamentally. While it is impossible to predict the future, various policy scenarios are constantly developed with the aim of examining which (socio-)technical system configurations are suitable/affordable/optimal for achieving the targets. Implications for system costs, reliability and energy security of different system configurations are typically examined. Scenario analysis thereby offers a tool to examine likely trade-offs between different pathways.

The outcomes of energy scenarios depend upon the assumptions they make, for example on future technologies and their costs – thus upon assumptions which are inevitably speculative and extra-scientific. Energy scenarios are often developed through complex energy models that were developed at high costs over several decades. Partly in order to protect intellectual property, the assumptions used in those models are seldom entirely revealed. This obvious lack of transparency inhibits the examination of the extra-scientific judgements involved, inhibits open debate on their plausibility and credibility, and inhibits the reproducibility of results by an independent party.

The focus of this research project would thus be to analyse the trade-offs between different scenario methodologies made by energy models, especially the likely trade-offs between complexity and transparency in the context of very high uncertainty.