Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) PhD Projects

Interactions between climate change, wildfire and atmospheric composition

Supervisors: Dr Dominick Spracklen, Dr Steve Arnold and Professor Ken Carslaw

Every year large regions of the boreal forest in Siberia, Canada and Alaska are burned by wildfire emitting substantial quantities of trace gases and particles to the atmosphere. These emissions have an important impact on climate: trace gas emissions result in the formation of ozone which is a greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation, change the properties of clouds and through deposition can speed the melting rate of snow and ice. The extent, frequency and intensity of wildfire are very sensitive to changes in weather and climate. The area of boreal forests burned by wildfire has increased over the past few decades, possibly as a result of climate change. In return, it has been suggested that the increased emissions from boreal forest fires may have caused a substantial fraction of the rapid climate warming that has been observed in Arctic. Our understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between climate, atmospheric composition and wildfire is still rudimentary hindering accurate projections of future climate in this important region.

In this project you will substantially improve our understanding of the interactions between climate, wildfire and atmospheric composition. You will make projections about how boreal forest wildfire will change over the coming century and make an important contribution to understanding future climate change across the Arctic.

Objectives and methods
 This studentship will:

• Identify the critical climate and human (fire ignition and suppression) parameters that drive the frequency and extent of wildfire across the boreal forest region, thereby improving wildfire modelling tools.
• Substantially improve our understanding of how climate change will impact boreal forest fire over the period 2000-2100.
• Quantify the impact of changing climate and wildfire on Arctic ozone and aerosol and the resulting change in climate forcing.

The project exploits new modelling tools combined with recent atmospheric and satellite observations that provide a unique opportunity to understand the interactions and feedbacks between climate and wildfire.
Models of boreal wildfire will be tested against national forest service records of wildfire and satellite observations of the area burned by wildfire. You will evaluate whether the models capture spatial, seasonal and interannual variability in wildfire and understand the vegetation, human and climate parameters most important in driving wildfire across this region. You will use this understanding to improve boreal wildfire models resulting in better future projections.
Projections of future wildfire will be made using the evaluated wildfire models combined with predictions of climate change and human disturbance over the period 2000 to 2100. 
To understand the implications of changing wildfire on atmospheric composition and climate the project will exploit the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) which has been developed in Leeds and the UK Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) climate model that has been developed in collaboration between Leeds, Cambridge and the Met Office. Aircraft and satellite observations of aerosol and trace gases will be used to evaluate the models.

Training and support
The PhD will provide high level training in a) application and development of a range of climate, atmospheric and land-surface models, b) analysis of aircraft and satellite data, c) computer programming and use of super computers. You will be working within a multidisciplinary group of scientists in the Aerosol, Chemistry and Climate Group who are working to answer a range of questions regarding the interactions between air quality, climate, and the biosphere. The group includes 6 postdocs and 7 students who will be able to provide additional technical and scientific support. The project also involves close collaboration with researchers in KNMI (Netherlands) and funds are available for a series of exchange visits.

Entry requirements/necessary background
A bachelor or masters degree in a quantitative science. An interest in global environmental issues.