Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) PhD Projects
Improving Chemical Weather Forecasts Using Satellite Data
Supervisor: Professor Martyn Chipperfield and Dr Nick Savage (Met Office)
The Met Office now includes a description of atmospheric chemistry in a version of their regional weather prediction model. This allows short-term forecasts of ‘chemical weather’, e.g. predictions high concentrations of ozone, nitrogen oxides or aerosols which can trigger warnings of poor air quality. The Met Office model is constrained at its boundaries using output from a global chemical-dynamical model. During simulations the accuracy of the regional air quality model has so far only been tested against the network of surface monitoring stations.
In recent years satellites have been increasingly used to make successful observations of chemical and aerosol species in the lowest 10km or so of the atmosphere. At present we have observations in the UV/visible and infra-red from ESA and NASA satellites of tropospheric species such as NO2, CH2O, CO, O3 and aerosol. These products are now at the stage where they can be used to evaluate the accuracy of regional air quality models. Satellites provide daily coverage over a whole region and information at altitudes above the surface. Therefore, satellite data have important advantages in testing large-scale models of atmospheric composition.
Objectives
The aim of this project is to test and improve the accuracy of the chemical forecasts from the Met Office regional air quality model by using satellite data. Specific planned tasks are:
1) Run a version of the Met Office Unified Model which is similar to that to be used for daily air quality forecasting for the UK area.
2) Use available satellite retrievals (e.g. SCIAMACHY (NO2, O3), OMI (NO2, CH2O), TES (CO, O3), MISR (aerosols)), and model transfer functions (which modifies the model output so it is directly comparable to retrievals) previously developed, to analyse the skill of the regional air quality model. Investigate how well the model does in different case studies for different meteorological/chemical situations.
3) Identify possible model improvements and run sensitivity tests. These tests may include higher resolution, improved chemistry and emissions, improved boundary conditions from the global model.
4) Using insight gained through these comparisons to improve the Met Offices operational air quality forecast system.
The student will be based in Leeds but will make frequent visits to the Met Office in Exeter including an extended stay in years 2 or 3. This award also carries CASE support from the Met Office (enhanced stipend and additional travel funds).
Applicants should have a good first degree in a quantitative physical science or mathematics. This project will suit someone with an interest in atmospheric science and modeling and who wishes to gain experience working as part of a national programme in Earth observation (NCEO) and with the UK’s operational weather service.